Bernoulli, Jacques | Ars conjectandi, opus posthumum, Basel, 1713, first edition

Ars conjectandi, opus posthumum. Accedit tractatus de seriebus infinitis, et epistola Gallice scripta de ludo pilae reticularis. Basel: Thurneisen Brothers, 1713

First edition of Bernoulli's most famous work, on series and probability, published posthumously.

Widely considered as the foundation of the mathematical theory on probability, this posthumous work was finished by the author's nephew. Divided into four parts: Ars Conjectandi features polynomials (now known as Bernoulli numbers), theory of permutations and combinations, and civil and moral affairs.

Though producing fundamental work within mathematics, Bernoulli’s exploration of probability throughout Ars Conjectandi is best seen through discussion of gaming, gambling, and games of chance. The work’s first part is an analysis of Christiaan Huygens’ De ratiociniis in Ludo Aleae—the first published mention of the “gambler’s ruin problem” or the concept that a gambler with limited funds playing a game with negative expected value will eventually go broke.

Continuing to make use of games of chance as his primary model, the present work ends with a focus on jeu de paume, added by the editors due to its shared theme. "[The] last section also contains some comments on jeu de paume—a game similar to modern tennis having little to do with the major topic of the work. This is Jacob's thinly disguised satirical response to some caustic criticisms made earlier of his views on scholarly logic" (Tomash & Williams).

4to (213 x 170 mm, uncut). Woodcut device on title-page, woodcut initials, two folding letterpress tables, one folding woodcut plate; leaves variously browned and foxed, marginal loss to B2, a few marginal tears not affecting text, scattered spotting. Contemporary speckled boards; slightly rubbed, wear and flaking to spine, upper edges dust-soiled, text-block nearly detached.

REFERENCES

Dibner, Heralds 110; Horblit 12; Norman 216; Printing and the Mind of Man 179; VD18 10312927; David, Games, Gods and Gambling 1962

PROVENANCE

 M.L. Borromeo Arese/ M. Favia del Core (bookplate)